England’s rocky road to Rio

England could be clear leaders of Group H and well on their way to Brazil by the time the next round of World Cup qualifiers end next Tuesday evening.

On the other hand, they could still be second in the group, or even be pushed down to third place!

That’s how tight it is as the teams enter the finishing straight.

Montenegro top the group by two points but have played a game more than England, who are second, and Ukraine, who are a further point behind in third.

England should beat second bottom Moldova at Wembley on Friday and Ukraine virtually have their three points already as they face minnows San Marino at home.

Montenegro face a trickier fixture in Poland and then must sit twiddling their thumbs while Ukraine and England face each other in Kiev next Tuesday.

For England, the game in Ukraine is likely to be decisive. If they lose, the likelihood of them topping the group and gaining guaranteed qualification is remote.

Ukraine would then be two points ahead (presuming both countries win on Friday) with a home match against Poland and an away game against San Marino to finish off with next month.

A draw for England in Kiev would make them favourites to finish ahead of Ukraine, but they’d still have to win their final two home games against Montenegro and Poland to keep it that way.

Realistically, because Ukraine can effectively bank six points against San Marino, Montenegro would probably have to win all three of their remaining matches to finish top, including causing an upset at Wembley.

If England finish second in the group, they will go into a two-legged play-off against one of seven second-placed teams.

At the moment, those countries are Croatia, Austria, Hungary, Russia, Greece, France and either Bulgaria or Albania.

England remain favourites to take their place at football’s biggest party, but it certainly won’t be easy.

Even qualifying won’t be the end of the anxiety for the players, as central defender Gary Cahill will testify.

Having helped his country reach Euro 2012, Cahill didn’t get on the plane for Poland and Ukraine because he was injured in the final warm-up friendly.

Playing against Belgium at Wembley, he collided with goalkeeper Joe Hart and broke his jaw.

While his team-mates were struggling to impress in Hodgson’s first tournament in charge, Cahill was back home with his jaw wired up, restricted to sipping pureed food through a straw.

Now, the 27-year-old Chelsea man confesses that the memory of missing out has increased his appetite to make it to Brazil. “It was a huge blow for me as that would have been my first major tournament with the national team,” he says.

“Unfortunately, it didn’t happen, but there’s another one around the corner for me and I’m really hungry to get there.

“If I do, it will be a great achievement for me and the England team.”

With two qualifiers ahead over the next few days and two more coming in October, Cahill knows that England still have much work to do.

He adds: “There will be some tough games, in particular Ukraine away (next Tuesday). I’ve been there before and it was a crazy atmosphere.

“The other big game will be Montenegro at home. But having three games at home is fantastic for us.

“We enjoy playing at Wembley and they’re familiar surroundings for us, so that’s a positive.”

England have recently dropped to 15th in the FIFA rankings, their lowest position for five years.

This, combined with the failures of their Under-21 and Under-20 teams in tournaments over the summer has led to many analysts taking a less than enthusiastic stance on the current state of England’s international football.

“If we get the results we are hoping for, and which many people expect, the rankings will change and will be a fairer reflection of where we are,” says Cahill.

“I wouldn’t read too much into the slip. No-one from our side was going that crazy when we were third.

“Now we are 15th and supposed to be all over the place, but that’s not the case at all.

“When things go well with England, you get the pats on the back. When they don’t go well, it is like the end of the world.

“For the younger age groups, it’s about the importance of tournament experience. Whether you do well or badly, you take positives from it.

“We’re all looking forward to the games coming up and there is absolutely no reason why we can’t qualify for Brazil.”