A festive season to be fearful in the Premier League

Plenty at stake as the Premier League title challengers will each play four matches over the 10 days of the festive period.

Before the end of New Year’s Day, many questions will have been answered. Just as likely, though, is that many new ones will have arisen. That’s the nature of this season’s Premier League. The only thing predictable about it is that it will be unpredictable.

Who would have thought that Manchester United would have lost three home games before window number eight on the advent calendar was opened? Or that Chelsea would be shipping goals left, right and centre? Or that Manchester City would have had so much trouble winning away? Or that Arsenal would be the league’s most consistent team? Then there’s the resurgence of Merseyside football, the ups and downs of Tottenham and the highly-praiseworthy efforts of Southampton and Newcastle to get in amongst the big boys.

So where do we stand going into this crucial stage of the campaign?

For starters, can we really write off Manchester United, even though we know all about their legendary resilience? When David Moyes took over from Sir Alex Ferguson, everyone expected a period of transition when the team might dip a little.

But did we really anticipate the Champions to be trailing so many clubs at this point? Not only does it look like their hopes of retaining their crown are gone, there’s even some doubt they will make the Champions League places. And the longer it takes for the team to hit some kind of form, the more traffic they’ll have to get through to make the top four. That means the pressure on Moyes will intensify.

There’s been a huge reliance on Wayne Rooney, who has been outstanding. However, even with him, the team has struggled to keep pace, but without him, where would they be? There’s still enough in the club’s DNA to suggest that they will improve over the second half of the season. It wouldn’t take much of a good run either, given the fact that many of their rivals have also shown a tendency to drop unexpected points. The title may now be beyond them, but I’d be surprised if they missed out on the top four.

Arsenal have been the team of the calendar year and it really shouldn’t have surprised anyone that they continued in August where they left off in May. But just as it’s in United’s genes to win trophies, missing out on silverware has been ingrained in Arsene Wenger’s men over recent seasons. That’s why the pundits have been so reluctant to say that the Gunners can go on to win the league. And why the bookies have been so reticent to install them as title favourites.

Everyone expects that, sooner or later, they’ll hit a sticky patch and start to fade. Particular emphasis has been on their lack of cover for striker Olivier Giroud. But the longer the season has gone on, the more seriously their challenge has been taken. After years of operating at the budget end of the transfer market, Wenger smashed the club’s record when he brought in Mesut Ozil for £42m in the summer. The German has been excellent, but perhaps more important has been the message sent to everyone that Arsenal are now competing with the rest. Their supremely-talented midfield is by a distance the best in the country. The key to them becoming Champions lies in how their much-improved defence holds up.

After some initial teething problems, it seems that Manchester City are at last getting their act together. If they are allowed to get into their stride, they will take some stopping. New manager Manuel Pellegrini is more expansive than predecessor Roberto Mancini and as a result his team have sometimes blown opponents away, yet at other times have left themselves wide open at the back. The Chilean made a huge call in dropping England No 1 Joe Hart and replacing him with Costel Pantilimon, so he can’t be accused of lacking courage. Alvaro Negredo is the pick of his £100m worth of summer signings, his partnership with Sergio Aguero full of goals.

Of course, Chelsea’s summer managerial change saw an altogether more familiar face back at Stamford Bridge, but there’s not much familiar about this Jose Mourinho team. When he arrived as “The Special One”, the hallmark of the Portuguese’s teams was power. When the old Chelsea got in front, they stayed in front. No-one muscled them out of their stride. They were ruthlessly efficient and killed off games with the minimum of fuss.

The current side may have remnants of that team John Terry, Frank Lampard, Ashley Cole and Petr Cech but age dictates that they are on the wane and those who are stepping up to replace them are of an entirely-different breed.

Players like Oscar, Willian, Eden Hazard, David Luiz and Juan Mata are ball players whose first instinct is to attack. With the defence less well-protected and Cech looking more vulnerable, it’s become a case of having to outscore the opposition to get three points. Gone are those trademark 1-0 wins from the first Mourinho era. They may still win the title, but there have been far too many glitches and if they’re not fixed soon, they will prove costly.

There was a time when Liverpool and Everton competed for the crown every year. More recently, they’ve been competing for seventh and eighth place. Or, in a good year, fifth and sixth.

Liverpool are still evolving their style under Brendan Rodgers and doubts remain about whether their back four is strong enough to give players like Steven Gerrard, Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho a solid platform to play from.

But, then, they do have Luis Suarez!

They dug in their heels and made him stay last summer when he clearly wanted Champions League football. It’s seemed that Suarez has taken it upon himself to try to ensure that he drags his team into the qualification places almost single-handed.

The Uruguayan certainly can’t be accused of sulking and is probably the hottest of a very hot bunch of Premier League strikers this season. The squad is not strong enough to cope with injuries to key players and that will probably cost them in the end. But as long as Suarez is scoring, they will be in the mix.

Everton, like Manchester United, might have expected a period of transition after losing a long-serving manager who left his own indelible mark on the club. But while Moyes has struggled, his replacement at Goodison, Roberto Martinez, has not only made the change look smooth, he’s had people saying that he’s taken the team to another level. That assessment may prove premature, but it’s certainly true that the Toffees are playing some excellent football, with an impressive combination of silk and steel.

Much of their success has stemmed from the influence of three loan signings striker Romelu Lukaku from Chelsea, defensive midfielder Gareth Barry from Manchester City and Barcelona youngster Gerard Deulofeu. With Ross Barkley elevated from fringe player to first-team regular and James McCarthy following Martinez from Wigan, Everton have a young core that’s making the recruitment of the Spanish manager look a masterstroke. Like Liverpool, they probably accept they won’t be Champions, but they will make the scrap for the places behind very interesting.

Tottenham invested all the Gareth Bale money plus a bit more besides on seven new players in the summer and that’s a lot to integrate quickly. Manager Andre Villas-Boas has been prickly under pressure but the depth of quality at White Hart Lane should eventually pay dividends. Again, they don’t look a title-winning team but they are another capable of snatching fourth spot if they can find a few more goals.

Southampton have been widely hailed as an example to all mid-range clubs with ambitions of punching above their weight. They produce an assembly line of young English talent such as Adam Lallana and a manager in Mauricio Pochettino who plays a hard-pressing game which has caused problems for some of the league’s best. You wouldn’t expect them to maintain a top-four challenge and they’d do well to be in competition for the Europa League places come May.

Newcastle competed for that trophy last season and their Premier League form suffered. This term, with a reduced fixture list, they’ve been much more like they were two seasons ago when they finished in the top six.

So, crystal ball time!

My feeling is that the trophy will go to either Arsenal or Manchester City, with Chelsea and Manchester United securing the other Champions League spots.

That leaves Liverpool, Everton and Tottenham scrapping for fifth, with Newcastle and Southampton pushing hard to stay in touch.