When it comes to Wimbledon, I will never write off either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.
They are the two greatest champions of all time, and if they still believe they can win the title, they can still win it.
Nadal has been involved in two of the biggest Wimbledon upsets of the open era in the last two years. First he lost to the unknown Czech Lukas Rosol, and then 12 months ago he crashed out to the even less-fancied Belgian, Steve Darcis.
Whatever the reasons, those defeats will have ‘killed’ Rafa. Now, having once again retained his French title, the Spaniard will be desperate to prove that he can play well on grass.
The hardest act in tennis is to win the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back. Nadal has done it twice, but the more he has struggled with his knee injuries, the harder it has become.
Next year Rafa will have an extra week to recover from the French, and re-tune his game for grass court tennis. This year, I can’t see Nadal winning Wimbledon, but he will be in the mix if he can survive the early rounds when he is most vulnerable.
The Spaniard is actually a very good grass court player, but the adjustment from clay is tough. The forehand that causes so much damage on the clay court surface is not so effective on grass, where the bounce is lower.
In preparation for Wimbledon, Nadal has to flatten the shot out to reap the benefit of his power. Rafa’s service earns him more cheap points these days than in the past, but it’s still not his best weapon.
Nadal is good on grass, but not as good as the top two.
The situation is different with Federer. If the great Swiss champion is to win another Grand Slam, it will be at Wimbledon. Grass court tennis is his forte.
It will be very interesting to see if Roger’s coaching link with Stefan Edberg bears dividends. It has been a little under the radar when compared to the Becker/Djokovic pairing and Murray/Lendl, but I’m sure Federer would not have engaged the Swede unless he believed there would be benefits.
There will not be any dramatic technical alterations, just some subtle tactical insights and reassurance.
It’s great that Roger still loves being out on court, and still believes he can win the big titles. Even the arrival of a second set of twins has not dampened Federer’s appetite for victory.
He manages to balance his family life brilliantly. Roger is still talking about playing at the next Olympic Games. I love that positive attitude, and his enthusiasm for the game.
Federer has had a decent year in terms of results. But seven best-of-five-sets matches are a big ask even for a younger man. I feel Roger could beat anyone in the field on his day but I don’t see him as the champion.
Much the same applies to Stan Wawrinka. He had an unbelievable tournament in Australia, but as a Grand Slam champion, Wawrinka doesn’t totally convince.
Stan doesn’t transmit confidence. He doesn’t give out the same aura as the top four. I’m not sure he believes he belongs in that company.
Also, Wawrinka has never had great results at Wimbledon. I feel he is not physically flexible enough to cope with the different spins and bounces.
Stan is a huge hitter of ball, and his serve is magnificent, but I just have a hunch he is the most vulnerable of the top seeds.
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