Oil figures show case for independence was ‘bogus’, Tories claim

NEW oil and gas figures show that the Scottish Government’s case for independence was “bogus”, opposition parties have said.

The Conservative and Labour leaders challenged Deputy First Minister John Swinney on the SNP administration’s 2014 prospectus for leaving the UK, stating it falsely used the sector as the basis for its economic case.

They raised the issue during First Minister’s Questions at Holyrood the day after the UK’s fiscal watchdog downgraded its forecasts for oil and gas receipts, and the week after an SNP adviser admitted the independence case should not include North Sea oil.

Tory leader Ruth Davidson said the Government’s campaign had been “taken apart” by one of its own side while Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said the economic case for independence is “well and truly bust”.

Andrew Wilson, chairman of the SNP’s growth commission, suggested during a BBC interview that making the revenues central to the economic arguments ahead of the 2014 referendum had been a mistake.

The Government had predicted North Sea oil revenues of up to £7.9 billion in 2016/17 and of up to £11.8 billion in 2017/18 prior to the independence referendum.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects offshore receipts of about £4.6 billion between 2017/18 and 2021/22, down from £7.3 billion in its November forecast.

It estimates revenues of £0.9 billion in 2017/18.

Ms Davidson: “He (Mr Wilson) admitted we did have oil baked into the numbers and it was indeed a basis (for independence).

“In other words, the entire economic prospectus on which the SNP based its entire case for independence was bogus.”

She added: “Oil receipts have absolutely collapsed and there is a simple question that the people of Scotland now have, and the question is this: without those oil receipts, can the Deputy First Minister point to any independent analysis that shows that Scotland’s economy would fair better right now if we were outside the United Kingdom?”

Ms Davidson has repeatedly challenged Scottish ministers on the issue of independence in recent months.

Speculation is growing that Nicola Sturgeon is poised to call a second referendum as the UK Government’s March deadline for triggering Brexit talks approaches.

The Tory leader added: “This morning we had the First Minister gunning for a referendum next year.

“She called it common sense. I call it nonsense because most people in Scotland do not want it.

“Most Scots do not want to go back to the division and uncertainty of another independence referendum.

“Most think it’s irresponsible to talk of a second referendum which is only going to damage the Scottish economy yet further.”

Mr Swinney, who was answering First Minister’s Questions while Nicola Sturgeon attends a memorial event for those who served in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, said oil was considered a “bonus” to the economy and had “propped up” the UK economy for many years.

“The Prime Minister, he was here in Scotland in 2014 saying there would be a massive oil bonus for Scotland if we voted no, and of course there were other promises made to Scotland if we voted no,” he said.

Mr Swinney said a pledged £1 billion carbon capture project for the north east had been cancelled while the “almighty commitment” of vote no to stay in the EU had ended with Brexit.

“Oil, carbon capture, European Union. The no campaign was shattered by these broken promises.”

He continued: “I think what the people of Scotland would want to hear is more action to support the North Sea oil and gas sector.”

Commenting on the Chancellor’s Budget pledge to set up an expert panel and launch a discussion paper on how to help the industry, he added: “What the UK Government has been doing is talking about possibly setting up a taking shop which they talked about setting up a year ago, and it hasn’t even materialised yet.”

Mr Swinney also cited a poll released on Thursday which shows Scots are split 50/50 on the issue of independence.

He said: “That’s the people of Scotland being exposed to the hard-right politics of the Tory party, seeing the mess they are getting us into about Europe and deciding that it’s time for this country to choose its own future.”