UPDATE, 7th October: Scotland need a win against Slovenia tomorrow night to secure a play-off spot.
Bosnia's defeat to Belgium means our national side will secure a play-off spot with a win over Slovenia tomorrow… Come on Scotland! pic.twitter.com/cp4NBElECv
— The Sunday Post (@Sunday_Post) October 7, 2017
AFTER last night’s win over Slovakia, Scotland’s dream of reaching a major tournament for the first time since 1998 lives on.
But what do the Tartan Army need from the final qualifier to be able to look out their passports for Russia?
Gordon Strachan’s side face Slovenia in the Group F finale on Sunday away in Ljubljana (kick-off 5pm) and getting a win is vital.
Scotland’s destiny is firmly in their own hands, sitting on 17 points in the group, two above Slovakia and three above Slovenia.
Which means….
- If Scotland win, they finish second.
- If Slovenia win, they’ll leapfrog Scotland on goal difference.
- Scotland essentially must match or better Slovakia’s result (expected to be a win against Malta) to finish second – so a draw is likely to be of little use.
- Slovenia have to beat Scotland to have a chance at qualification.
We kept believing, says Scotland striker Chris Martin after crucial win over Slovakia
The play-offs
With all that said, second place might still not be enough to get through to the next stage.
Only eight of the nine runners up get to go through to a two-legged play-off, with the team with the lowest points total dropping out.
Unfortunately for Wales, that’s currently them, but that could change with results over the weekend.
To make things a little more complex, points won against the bottom team in each group do not count in the calculations. Scotland therefore lose six points gained against Malta from their final tally.
If teams are equal on points, they’re then ranked by goal difference, goals scored, goals scored away from home and fair play points.
Once the final eight have been decided, teams will be seeded for the draw and each of the top four will be paired with one of the bottom four.
Scotland will, perhaps unsurprisingly, be in the latter category and as it stands could face Portugal, Denmark, Northern Ireland or Italy for a place at Russia 2018.
The draw takes place on October 17.
The campaign
It’s come down to the final day, but you wouldn’t have predicted that from the start Scotland made.
A comfortable win in Malta was followed by a dismal draw at home to Lithuania and consecutive 3-0 defeats away in Slovakia and against England at Wembley.
Even the most optimistic fans were ruling out any chance of finally reaching a tournament after such a long wait.
It was in the first tie against Slovenia that the tide started to turn, with a late Chris Martin winner reigniting the campaign.
A draw at Hampden against England, which in truth was two points dropped, followed by a resounding victory in Lithuania put qualification back on the table.
It was tighter than anticipated against Malta, but Gordon Strachan’s men got the job done.
But it looked like it would all fizzle out last night until Martin Skrtel’s own goal in the dying embers of the match allowed fans to dare to dream again.
The results
Sun September 4
Malta 1 Scotland 5
Sat October 8
Scotland 1 Lithuania 1
Tue October 11
Slovakia 3 Scotland 0
Fri November 11
England 3 Scotland 0
Sun March 26
Scotland 1 Slovenia 0
Sat June 10
Scotland 2 England 2
Fri September 1
Lithuania 0 Scotland 3
Mon September 4
Scotland 2 Malta 0
Thurs October 5
Scotland 1 Slovakia 0
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