US president Donald Trump has called upon politicians to “summon the unity” needed to make good on long-standing promises to fix the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and fractured immigration systems in his State of the Union address.
“To every citizen watching at home tonight, no matter where you have been, or where you come from, this is your time,” Mr Trump declared.
Wage gains
TRUMP: “After years and years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages.”
THE FACTS: They are not rising any faster than they have before. Average hourly pay rose 2.5% in 2017, slightly slower than the 2.9% recorded in 2016.
Most economists say wages should increase at a faster rate as the unemployment rate drops. The unemployment rate stands at a 17-year low of 4.1%, but that has done little so far to spark rising wages.
The last time unemployment was this low, in the late 1990s, average hourly pay was rising at 4%.
Diversity visas
TRUMP: “The third pillar (of my immigration plan) ends the visa lottery — a programme that randomly hands out green cards without any regard to skill, merit or the safety of our people.”
THE FACTS: That’s a highly misleading characterisation. The programme is not nearly that random and it does address skills, merit and safety.
The diversity visa programme awards up to 50,000 green cards a year to people from underrepresented countries, largely in Africa. It requires applicants to have completed a high school education or have at least two years of experience in the last five years in a selection of fields identified by the Labour Department.
Winners are then randomly selected by computer, from that pool of applicants who met the pre-conditions. Winners must submit to extensive background checks, just like any other immigrant.
Coal
TRUMP: “We have ended the war on beautiful clean coal.”
THE FACTS: Coal is not clean. According to the Energy Department, more than 83% of major air pollutants — sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide, toxic mercury and dangerous soot particles — from power plants are from coal, even though coal makes up only 43% of the power generation. Power plants are the biggest source of those pollutants.
Coal produces nearly twice as much heat-trapping carbon dioxide per energy created as natural gas, the department says.
In 2011, coal burning emitted more than six million tons of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides versus 430,000 tons from other energy sources combined.
Illegal immigration
TRUMP: “The first pillar of our framework generously offers a path to citizenship for 1.8 million illegal immigrants who were brought here by their parents at a young age — that covers almost three times more people than the previous administration.”
THE FACTS: Not so. The Obama administration pushed legal status for many more immigrants and was prevented by Congress and the courts from offering it. A 2013 bill that passed the Senate but died in the House would have bestowed legal status on about eight million people, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate.
In 2014, the Obama administration announced an expanded programme that included parents of young immigrants who were shielded from deportation under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals programme. According to the non-partisan Migration Policy Institute, the measure would have given legal status to up to four million people. The Supreme Court deadlocked on the plan, letting a lower court ruling stand that blocked it.
"Terrorists are not merely criminals. They are unlawful enemy combatants. And when captured overseas, they should be treated like the terrorists they are." #SOTU: https://t.co/Njo52YOlc2
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 31, 2018
Terrorists
TRUMP: “In the past, we have foolishly released hundreds and hundreds of dangerous terrorists only to meet them again on the battlefield, including the Isis leader, (Abu Bakr) al-Baghdadi, who we captured, who we had, who we released.”
THE FACTS: Mr Trump is correct that al-Baghdadi had been released after being detained at Abu Ghraib and Camp Bucca, US detention facilities in Iraq. But the president made his comment while announcing that he had signed an executive order to keep open the controversial US detention centre at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. If he meant that “hundreds and hundreds” of Guantanamo detainees had been released only to return to the battlefield, his maths is off.
The office of the Director of National Intelligence said this summer in its most recent report on the subject that of the 728 detainees who have been released from Guantanamo, 122 are “confirmed” and 90 are “suspected” of re-engaging in hostile activities.
Opiods
TRUMP: Changes in immigration policies, including more border security, “will also support our response to the terrible crisis of opioid and drug addiction”.
THE FACTS: Drugs being brought across borders are only part of the problem contributing to the nation’s opioid crisis.
According to the US Centres on Disease Control and Prevention, about 40% of the opioid deaths in 2016 involved prescription painkillers. Those drugs are made by pharmaceutical companies. Some are abused by the people who have prescriptions, others are stolen and sold on the black market.
The flow of heroin into the US from Mexico is a major problem, but drugs brought from other countries do not all come over land borders. Illicit versions of powerful synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, which are a major factor in rising overdose numbers, are being shipped directly to the US from China.
TRUMP: “My administration is committed to fighting the drug epidemic and helping get treatment for those in need.”
THE FACTS: The bipartisan National Governors Association does not think he has lived up to that commitment. Earlier this month, the governors called on Mr Trump and Congress to do more to pay for and co-ordinate a response to the opioid epidemic.
The Trump administration has allowed states to seek permission to use Medicaid to cover addiction treatment in larger facilities — a measure advocates say is needed.
"As long as we have confidence in our values, faith in our citizens, and trust in our God, we will not fail. Our families will thrive. Our people will prosper. And our Nation will forever be safe and strong and proud and mighty and free." #SOTU: https://t.co/Njo52YOlc2
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 31, 2018
Veterans
TRUMP: “Last year, the Congress passed, and I signed, the landmark VA Accountability Act. Since its passage, my administration has already removed more than 1,500 VA (Veterans Affairs) employees who failed to give our veterans the care they deserve.”
THE FACTS: This statement is inaccurate. It is true that more than 1,500 firings at the VA have occurred so far during the Trump administration. But more than 500 of those firings occurred from January 20, when Mr Trump took office, to late June, when the new accountability law began to take effect. That means roughly a third of the 1,500 firings cannot be attributed to the new law.
Congress passed the legislation last June making it easier to fire VA employees and shortening the time employees have to challenge disciplinary actions. But the law’s impact on improving accountability at the department remains unclear: more VA employees were fired in Barack Obama’s last budget year, for instance, than in Mr Trump’s first.
Border security
TRUMP: “For decades, open borders have allowed drugs and gangs to pour into our most vulnerable communities.”
THE FACTS: “Open borders” is an exaggeration. Border arrests, a useful if imperfect gauge of illegal crossings, have dropped sharply over the last decade.
The government under George W Bush and Barack Obama roughly doubled the ranks of the Border Patrol, and Mr Bush extended fencing to cover nearly a third of the border during his final years in office. The Obama administration deported more than two million immigrants during the eight years he was in office, more than previous administrations.
Studies over several years have found immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than people born in the US.
Family immigration
TRUMP: “Under the current broken system, a single immigrant can bring in virtually unlimited numbers of distant relatives.”
THE FACTS: It is not happening because the waiting list is so long.
There is currently no wait for US citizens to bring spouses, children under 21 and parents, but citizens must petition for siblings and adult children, and green-card card holders must do the same for spouses and children.
On November 1, there were four million people in line for family-based visas, according to the State Department. The waits are longest for China, India, Mexico and the Philippines. In January, Mexican siblings of US children who applied in November 1997 were getting called, a wait of more than 20 years.
An immigrant could theoretically bring an uncle by bringing a parent who then brings his sibling, but the wait would be interminable for most.
Inspiring & powerful #SOTU. @POTUS made clear the state of our Union is STRONG. In just 1 year @POTUS has cut taxes, grown our economy, and has ISIS on the run – & we're just getting started. We are building a SAFE, STRONG & PROUD America! #MAGA pic.twitter.com/ZaTVb6ZHZK
— Vice President Mike Pence (@VP) January 31, 2018
Obama’s health law
TRUMP: “We repealed the core of the disastrous Obamacare — the individual mandate is now gone.”
THE FACTS: No, it is not gone. It’s going, in 2019. People who go without insurance this year are still subject to fines.
Congress did repeal the unpopular requirement that most Americans carry insurance or risk a tax penalty but that takes effect next year.
It is a far cry from what Mr Trump and the Republican-led Congress set out to do last year, which was to scrap most of the sweeping Obama-era health law and replace it with a Republican alternative. The blueprint would have left millions more Americans uninsured, making it even more unpopular than “Obamacare”.
Other major parts of the overhaul remain in place, including its Medicaid expansion, protections for people with pre-existing conditions, guaranteed “essential” health benefits, and subsidised private health insurance for people with modest incomes.
Cars
TRUMP: “Many car companies are now building and expanding plants in the United States — something we have not seen for decades.”
THE FACTS: He is wrong about recent decades. The motor industry has regularly been opening and expanding factories since before he became president. Toyota opened its Mississippi factory in 2011. Hyundai’s plant in Alabama dates to 2005. In 2010, Tesla fully acquired and updated an old factory to produce its electric vehicles.
Mr Trump also declared: “Chrysler is moving a major plant from Mexico to Michigan.” That is not exactly the case, either. Chrysler announced it will move production of heavy-duty pick-up trucks from Mexico to Michigan, but the plant is not closing in Mexico. It will start producing other vehicles for global sales and no change in its workforce is anticipated.
"Last year, I also pledged that we would work with our allies to extinguish ISIS from the face of the Earth… We will continue our fight until ISIS is defeated." #SOTU pic.twitter.com/LHdxPMQct0
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 31, 2018
Islamic State
TRUMP: “Last year I pledged that we would work with our allies to extinguish Isis from the face of the earth. One year later, I’m proud to report that the coalition to defeat Isis has liberated almost 100% of the territory once held by these killers in Iraq and Syria. But there is much more work to be done. We will continue our fight until Isis is defeated.”
THE FACTS: Although it is true that Islamic State has lost nearly all of the territory it held in Syria and Iraq when the US began air strikes in 2014, Syria remains wracked by civil war, with much of that country controlled by the government of Russian ally Syrian President Bashar Assad and not by US-allied groups. The Iraqi government has declared itself fully liberated from IS.
The progress cited by Mr Trump did not start with his presidency. The US-led coalition recaptured much land, including several key cities in Iraq, before he took office. And the assault on Mosul, which was the extremists’ main stronghold in northern Iraq, was begun during the Obama administration. In the past year the counter-Isis campaign has accelerated, based largely on the approach Mr Trump inherited.
He is right that more remains to be done to eliminate IS as an extremist threat, even after it has been defeated militarily. The group is still able to inspire attacks in the West based on its ideology, and it is trying to make inroads in places like Afghanistan and Libya.
Middle-class taxes
TRUMP: “Our massive tax cuts provide tremendous relief for the middle class and small businesses.”
THE FACTS: That depends on how you define “tremendous”. The biggest beneficiaries from the tax law are wealthy Americans and corporations.
Most Americans will pay less in taxes this year. The non-partisan Tax Policy Centre estimates that about 80% of US households will get a tax cut, with about 15% seeing little change and 5% paying more.
Middle-class households — defined as those making between roughly $49,000 and $86,000 a year — will see their tax bills drop by about $930, the Tax Policy Centre calculates. That will lift their after-tax incomes by 1.6%.
The richest 1% will save $51,140, lifting their after-tax incomes by 3.4%, or more than twice as much as the middle class.
Energy exports
TRUMP: “We are now an exporter of energy to the world.”
THE FACTS: There’s nothing new in that. The US has long exported all sorts of energy, while importing even more. If Mr Trump meant that the US has become a net exporter of energy, he is rushing things along. The US Energy Information Administration projects that the US will become a net energy exporter in the next decade, primarily because of a boom in oil and gas production that began before Mr Trump’s presidency. The Trump White House has predicted that could happen sooner, by 2020. But that’s not “now”.
Tax cuts
TRUMP: “We enacted the biggest tax cuts and reform in American history.”
THE FACTS: No truer now than the countless other times he has said the same. The December tax overhaul ranks behind Ronald Reagan’s in the early 1980s, post-Second World War tax cuts and several more.
An analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in the autumn put Mr Trump’s package as the eighth biggest since 1918. As a percentage of the total economy, Mr Reagan’s 1981 cut is the biggest followed by the 1945 rollback of taxes that financed the Second World War.
Valued at $1.5 trillion over 10 years, the plan is indeed large and expensive. But it’s much smaller than originally intended. Back in the spring, it was shaping up as a $5.5 trillion package. Even then it would have only been the third largest since 1940 as a share of gross domestic product.
Worker bonuses
TRUMP: “Since we passed tax cuts, roughly three million workers have already gotten tax cut bonuses — many of them thousands of dollars per worker.”
THE FACTS: This appears to be true, but may not be as impressive as it sounds. According to a tally of public announcements by Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative group that supported the tax law, about three million workers have received bonuses, raises or larger payments to their retirement accounts since the tax law was signed.
That’s about 2% of the more than 154 million Americans with jobs. The Labour Department said before the tax package was signed into law that 38% of workers were likely to get some form of bonus in 2017.
Few companies have granted across-the-board pay raises, which Mr Trump and Republican leaders promised would result from the cut in corporate tax rates included in the overhaul. Many, such as Walmart and BB&T Bank, said they will raise their minimum wages. Walmart made similar announcements in 2015 and 2016.
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