Scotland’s Highlands and Islands are at the centre of a perfect storm.
The combination of emerging from a long winter break, Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic poses a huge threat to the region’s economy.
We depend on income from tourism more than most places in the UK. The situation will of course become critical if the lockdown continues throughout the summer.
If there is no holiday season at all this year then it will be extraordinarily difficult for many businesses to survive. Because tourism is seasonal, if there are no visitors this summer, by the time we get to next spring it will seem like we have been through the equivalent of an 18-month winter shutdown.
Economically, that would be very tough, but this has got to be a real consideration.
Also, the lack of jobs created by an extended crisis would be the single biggest issue for young people in the region.
We want to keep them in the community as we already have an overly large population of older people in the Highlands.
Young people are our lifeblood but they may have to start leaving for the cities.
If there is no holiday season it will be difficult for businesses to survive
One of the horrors we have seen locally was what happened in March at the Coylumbridge Hotel near Aviemore, when live-in staff suddenly lost their jobs and some were put out on the street.
They were left with no income, no work and nowhere to stay.
That was like a mini Highland Clearance in itself and it was astonishing how quickly it happened.
Similar incidents could start occurring elsewhere if the crisis and lockdown is extended. It could be ruthless.
The only plus point may be that the current situation might create more affordable housing opportunities for young people as homes could be rented out or sold instead of being earmarked for hosting tourists or for second homes for people from outside the area.
The population of Skye has doubled since its low point in the 1960s and it would be very disappointing to see a reversal of this trend of repopulation not just at the most popular visitor spots but across the wider Highland area in general.
Jim Hunter is author and Emeritus Professor of History at the University of the Highlands & Islands and former chairman of Highlands & Islands Enterprise.
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