FROM the moment he signed his new contract at Chelsea last July, it has seemed that Antonio Conte has been saying a long goodbye.
There’s nothing strange about a manager, who’d just won the Premier League at his first attempt, being rewarded with a new deal.
What was very odd was that it was only a pay rise, not an extension to the three-year agreement he’d signed on arrival the previous summer.
It seemed either Conte wasn’t convinced about Chelsea, or Chelsea weren’t convinced about him.
Both would have been right to have reservations.
Conte would have known that the average tenure of a permanent manager under Roman Abramovich is 19 months, which, coincidentally, is how long the Italian has been in place.
He’d have seen that Chelsea sack their manager after he’s just won the Premier League (Jose Mourinho), the Champions League (Roberto di Matteo) or a League and FA Cup double (Carlo Ancelotti).
The club will have noted that Conte resigned at Juventus because he felt he didn’t get enough transfer market backing from the Board, and has a history of complaining about it.
That was always going to be a problem at Chelsea. In their business model, the manager is a short-term employee, whose only job is to make the team win. When that stops happening, they get another one.
That’s underlined by the fact Conte is officially head coach, not the manager.
After the home drubbing by Bournemouth last week, Conte insisted he was doing a great job and was over-achieving with the players he has.
Abramovich, and his allies, may not see it that way. As the Premier League’s third-biggest spenders and third-biggest wage-payers – after the Manchester clubs – they expect at least a Champions League spot.
With the title surrendered, the League Cup gone and Barcelona up next in the Champions League, the FA Cup is their one realistic trophy target.
But these days, winning that doesn’t preclude managers of the big-six clubs from being sacked if there’s no Champions League football. Louis van Gaal found that out.
One of Conte’s problems is that he always seems to be spoiling for a fight.
He certainly won’t win against Abramovich and his chief transfer negotiator, Marina Granovskaia.
Neither will he beat the Chelsea dressing-room if they turn against him.
The faces may change, but player-power has always had a big influence on the fate of the manager.
I’d recommend that Conte should stop complaining, stop finding excuses for bad results and stop fighting battles he can’t win.
But, even if he does all that, it may be too late. It’s likely that the die has already been cast and he’s now on a four-month farewell tour.
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