Scots warned of more restrictions as Omicron surges across country

New restrictions in Scotland became more likely yesterday as the First Minister kept in constant contact with public health officials monitoring the rapid spread of the new variant.

On Friday she warned of a ­“tsunami” of infections and yesterday her deputy, John Swinney, said hospitals could soon be overwhelmed. All household contacts of someone with Covid have now been told to isolate for 10 days even if they initially get a negative PCR test as Omicron cases surge.

Swinney said: “We’re going to see very, very significant growth in the Omicron variant of the virus, which will build on the exceptional growth we’ve seen over the last seven days.

“If you go back a week, Omicron represented 2% of cases in Scotland. Within seven days it’s 15%. That shows the variant is doubling in scale every two to three days – probably nearer to two days than three days – which means the numbers will just get bigger and bigger and bigger. Obviously that leads to exponential spread of the virus, which is why we called it a tsunami.”

Swinney said people should avoid Christmas parties, test themselves every time they leave the house and isolate if positive. But he said more public health measures will be necessary. “That’s an issue we’re actively wrestling with this weekend,” he said, “and we are looking at whether we need to take further measures to try to arrest the circulation of the virus. We’d a huge rise in cases, over 5,000, that suggests we have an escalating problem. So the government is wrestling with the challenge of what are the right rules to have in place.”

© Colin Fisher/PA Wire

A further 4,087 Covid cases were recorded yesterday but the number is likely to be higher because there had been delays processing test results, according to Public Health Scotland.

Swinney added: “We have to judge what’s the best set of measures we can take to try to interrupt the circulation of the virus. We can’t have it moving at the pace it’s moving because the danger is that will overwhelm our public and private services. We already faced significant cancellation of rail services because of the self-isolation of railway staff so it’s going to affect other sectors and we have to be upfront with people about the dangers we face.”

Professor of behavioural ­science Stephen Reicher, who advises the Scottish and UK governments, said more support must be offered to those expected to self-isolate.

“Despite being tired of it, and despite it being difficult,” he said, “if things are clearly explained and people understand the need for action, they will take it – as long as there is support to make actions possible. Often the controversy over measures is actually the controversy over the lack of support.

“The key thing is to give support for self-isolation because if you can’t afford to self-isolate you won’t. And if you can’t afford to find out you’re positive you won’t get tested.

“What you have seen right the way through the pandemic is poorer people do not isolate because they can’t afford to.”

Reicher also warned severe restrictions would be necessary unless people cut down on interactions. He said: “The key message is if you just carry on as normal, and if you party as if there’s no tomorrow, the problem is there might be no tomorrow.

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“The new variant spreads extremely fast. It doubles once every two days or so. That means three doublings in a week. So in one week you get eight times as much, in two weeks you get 64 times as much, in three weeks you get 512 times as much. It’s like an express train coming towards us and that’s what’s really worrying.

“What we don’t know is how ­serious it is in terms of hospitalisations. Even if it was only half as serious, if you get eight times as much virus in a week and only half as many people are hospitalised you still get four times as many people hospitalised. We can’t afford to gamble on the NHS collapsing so we do need to take action now.”

The UK is facing a substantial wave of Omicron infections in January without further restrictions, according to new research published yesterday by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).

The number of deaths from the variant by the end of April could range from 25,000 to 75,000 depending on how well vaccines perform, they said.

Edinburgh University public health expert professor Linda Bauld, a Scottish Government adviser, said new measures in Scotland could affect Christmas plans. “I think that’s a possibility,” she said, “but I hope it won’t be a repeat of last year. I certainly think one of the things people found hardest to deal with was you could only see a certain number of people in your own home. Isolation, loneliness, separation from loved ones is something we also want to avoid.”

Bauld also said another lockdown seems unlikely. She added: “At this stage everybody wants to avoid shutting businesses again. That would be a last resort but clearly across the country decision-makers have to look at the menu of options and decide what’s proportionate.

“If you were only thinking about it from a public health perspective and protecting the NHS we’d all be asked to stay at home right now and effectively stop mixing. But those are not the only decisions.”

The new Omicron variant is expected to feature in an outbreak of Covid following a hotel party on December 4. NHS Fife has confirmed a cluster of cases linked to a large evening event, featuring a Take That tribute band, at the Fairmont Hotel in St Andrews.

Eleanor Riley, a professor of ­immunology and infectious disease, said Omicron was spreading so fast people were very likely to meet someone infected with the variant. “Unless you are living the life of a hermit, you are very likely to come across it in the next few weeks,” she said.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Government has said adult care home staff and those working in social care will not lose out financially if they are vaccinated during working time.

Care providers will receive ­financial support if employees are vaccinated in working time – so staff can do so without losing earnings or having to take annual leave.

Scottish Government figures show rates of uptake of the booster vaccine are currently lower among social care staff, with 47.7% of frontline social care workers and 54.8% of care home staff having had their booster, than they are in other sectors – 72%.

Scientists warned on Friday that two doses of a Covid vaccine were not enough to stop people catching the Omicron variant – although a third booster dose significantly increases protection to about 75%.

Vaccines are still likely to offer good protection against severe Covid that would need hospital treatment.

Scottish Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: “Getting your booster is even more important with the emergence of the Omicron variant. Please do so as soon as possible.”

Just over two million people in Scotland have received a third dose or booster, official figures show. Some 4,361,197 people have received their first dose of a Covid vaccination, 3,971,488 have received their second dose. Another 12 deaths linked to Covid were recorded yesterday.