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Opinion polls paint mixed picture as voters prepare to cast ballots in General Election

Opinion polls continue to paint a mixed picture on the day of the General Election (Liam McBurney/PA)
Opinion polls continue to paint a mixed picture on the day of the General Election (Liam McBurney/PA)

OPINION polls continue to paint a mixed picture as the General Election campaign draws to its conclusion – with Theresa May’s lead ranging from within a single point to a double-digit cushion.

A Survation poll had the two parties almost neck and neck as voters prepared to cast their ballots while ICM gave the Tories a comfortable 12-point lead.

Survation’s final pre-election survey put the Tories on 41.3% with Labour on 40.4%, the Liberal Democrats on 7.8%, SNP on 3.6%, Ukip on 2.4% and the Greens on 2.3%

ICM’s preliminary findings in a poll for the Guardian put Mrs May’s party on 46%, up one point compared to a poll on Monday, with Labour unchanged on 34%.

The Lib Dems were down one point on 7%, the SNP up one on 5%, Ukip unchanged on 5% and the Greens down one on 2%.

A ComRes poll for The Independent gave the Tories a 10-point lead over Labour.

The poll had the Tories down three points on 44%, Labour down one point on 34%, the Lib Dems up one on 9%, Ukip up one on 5%, the SNP on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

Half of 2015 Ukip voters say they will now vote Conservative, potentially adding two million votes, or around 6% points to the Tory vote share.

How the final polls of a general election campaign have compared with the actual result
How the final polls of a general election campaign have compared with the actual result (PA graphic)

The Liberal Democrats are losing voters to both major parties, with two-fifths of their 2015 voters saying they will now either vote Labour (22%) or Conservative (19%).

But with Kantar Public the Tory lead was just five points, with the Conservatives on 43%, Labour on 38%, the Lib Dems on 7% and Ukip and the SNP both on 4%.

A YouGov poll for The Times put the Tory lead on seven points, with the Conservatives on 42%, Labour on 35%, the Lib Dems on 10% and Ukip on 5%.

On Wednesday, the Press Association’s poll of polls, taking in 10 results from the past week, put the Conservatives on 44%, seven points clear of Labour on 37%, with the Liberal Democrats on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

Poll of polls
How the parties are faring in the poll of polls on the eve of the General Election (PA graphic)

Survation interviewed 2,798 adults by telephone between June 6 and 7.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 1,532 adults between June 6 and 7.

ComRes interviewed 2,051 GB adults online between June 5 and 7.

Kantar interviewed 2,159 GB adults online between June 1 and 7.

 YouGov surveyed 2,130 GB adults between June 5 and 7.