Poll predicts Angus Robertson will lose his commons seat in the general election

SNP depute leader Angus Robertson is on course to lose his seat in the General Election, according to analysis of a new poll.

The survey, carried out for The Herald by BMG, puts support for the SNP at 43%, 13 points above the Scottish Conservatives on 30%.

It has Labour on 18%, the Liberal Democrats at 5% and the Scottish Greens at 2%, after “don’t knows” have been excluded.

According to the Electoral Calculus projector, the SNP would lose seats to the Tories.

Constituencies the Scottish Conservatives would seize include Aberdeen South, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, as well as Dumfries and Galloway, the analysis suggests.

Mr Robertson, who is standing for re-election in Moray, would not be re-elected, projections suggest, while shadow SNP Westminster group leader Peter Wishart would also lose his seat of Perth and North Perthshire.

The survey, which was carried out before the Manchester bomb attack, claims the number of Scottish Tory MPs would rise from one to eight.

On Thursday, a separate poll conducted by Ipsos Mori for STV, put the SNP on 43%, the Tories and Labour on 25% each, and the Lib Dems on 5%.

Commenting on The Herald poll, SNP election campaign manager Derek Mackay, said: “This poll was taken over two weeks ago – but like all other polls, it shows that only a vote for the SNP can keep the Tories out.

“Labour can’t win the election in Scotland – and a vote for them just risks letting a Tory MP in the back door.

“Now, more than ever, it is vital to have strong SNP voices standing up for Scotland at Westminster.”

Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson conceded that Labour was climbing in the opinion polls but insisted her own party was in the 40s, which was higher than Tony Blair achieved in the Labour landslide in 1997.

The Labour surge was caused by the “disastrous” Liberal Democrat campaign, rather than Conservative losses, Ms Davidson said, as she also sought to defend her party’s policy on benefit cuts and immigration.

Ms Davidson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I haven’t seen an election yet – and I’ve fought six of them as leader plus two referenda – where it hasn’t been the media’s job to start creating expectation about the result by saying that the polls have narrowed and, funnily enough, two weeks out, they started that narrative, and it is continuing through to polling day.

“I think that people that have the experience need to hold their nerve, put your head down, keep working, because there is no substitute in an election for hard work.”