Angus Roxburgh: The desertion of Kremlin elite could begin the end of Putin. Or spur him on

A few years ago I sat drinking tea with a young Russian deputy prime minister in his Kremlin office. Arkady Dvorkovich was seen as an enlightened reformer, who wanted to steer Russia’s stagnating economy away from oil and gas exports towards consumer goods and services.

He was dismayed in late 2011 when Vladimir Putin decided to return to the Kremlin as president after stepping back for four years as prime minister. Dvorkovich tweeted on the day that decision was announced: “Nothing to be joyful about. Time to switch to the sports channel.” In those days you could just about get away with being rude about your boss.

But, as Putin turned from mere strongman to ruthless dictator, Dvorkovich moved out of government to safer pastures, becoming director of an innovation project known as Skolkovo, and also head of the International Chess Federation (FIDE).

Putin’s war in Ukraine was the last straw. Dvorkovich condemned the invasion, saying “my thoughts are with Ukrainian civilians”. He even made sure FIDE blacklisted his own country until the war was over. Last week he left Russia. Putin’s stooges in parliament immediately invoked his new Stalinist turn of phrase, describing Dvorkovich as one of the “fifth columnists” and “national traitors” the country was well rid of.

Dvorkovich is one of perhaps a quarter of a million Russians who have decided to emigrate rather than live in a country run by a warmonger like Putin. Their departure is, of course, a loss for Russia. But perhaps also a sign of hope. I cannot imagine Dvorkovich settling down in the West for ever. He is the kind of person who – when the end comes for Putin, as come it will – could return to his homeland and start to rebuild it from the ruins of dictatorship.

Another leading light who fled this week was Anatoly Chubais. The key thing to know about him is that, without his help, Putin would probably never have become Russian leader.

Chubais, in 1996, picked Putin from the obscurity of the mayor’s office in St Petersburg and handed him a prize job in the Kremlin. Boris Yeltsin was then president and Chubais was known as a leading economic reformer who helped to catapult Russia from the chaos of communism into full-blown capitalism.

The wrench was too much for most Russians, who were left destitute while new super-rich oligarchs emerged – so Chubais was hardly a popular figure. But he was liked in the West, and when Putin became president, Chubais assumed he would continue to push Russia along the path of reform and integration with the West.

Putin rewards loyalty, and gave Chubais a number of high-profile jobs. Most recently, he represented Russia at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow. But last week he resigned and left the country, becoming the most senior figure so far to walk out in protest over the war.

Fleeing the country is easier when you are at the outer edges of the elite. At the centre, leaving or registering your disapproval is much harder. Elvira Nabiullina, a respected liberal economist who is head of Russia’s Central Bank, is said to have wanted to resign over the decision to invade Ukraine but Putin refused to accept it.

The war appears to be going badly for Russia, and it is to be expected that Putin will look for scapegoats. Already several generals have been sacked or side-lined. The position of defence minister Sergei Shoigu was shrouded in mystery as he disappeared from public view for two weeks.

There was speculation he was in disgrace – either for failings in the military campaign or because his daughter Ksenia posted a photograph of herself and her child wearing the colours of the Ukrainian flag. Punishing someone for such “misdemeanours” by family members would not seem out of place in the new Stalinesque Russia.

On Thursday the Russian media tried to convince the public Shoigu was still in his post by showing him taking part in a video conference with Putin. But the little image of Shoigu on Putin’s screen looked suspiciously doctored. Yesterday Shoigu was finally shown addressing a ministry meeting but the reason for his long absence remained unclear.

Doubts have emerged about the loyalty of some in the security service, the FSB. A whistle-blower claimed there was widespread anger at the botched invasion – and at Putin for allegedly trying to blame them for failing to topple the Kyiv government.

These signs of unease among the elite, if they grow, could spell trouble for Putin. But they could also spur him to even more brutal actions, to stop the rot and keep himself in power.

Angus Roxburgh is a former BBC Moscow correspondent and author of The Strongman: Vladimir Putin And The Struggle For Russia.