Apparent momentum towards a Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to build yesterday.
Boris Johnson warned of a “generation of bloodshed and misery” if Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops massed on the border to enter Ukraine.
The British Prime Minister’s warning came as senior Ukraine military officials were shelled during a visit to the east of the country as speculation grows that the Kremlin will fake a so-called “false flag” incident to justify invasion.
Earlier, world leaders gathered in Germany amid growing warnings from the US that Putin would launch an attack within days. Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders and, according to US defence officials, 40% to 50% are now in attack positions. In a display of its military power, Russia also held nuclear missile drills yesterday, with the exercises supervised by Putin from Moscow.
Johnson told the Munich Security Conference intelligence information suggested a Russian invasion of Ukraine was “increasingly likely”. He said it had reached the “11th hour of averting disaster and ensuring good sense can still prevail”.
He warned an invasion of Ukraine, a former Soviet state that shares borders with Russia and the EU, would be the “destruction of a democratic state that has been free for a generation”. Johnson said: “After a generation of freedom, we’re now staring at a generation of bloodshed and misery.”
He also said world leaders needed to show a “collective resolve” to ensure Putin failed if there was a “violent act of aggression”.
He said the UK has worked with the European Union and the United States to put together the “toughest and strongest package of sanctions”.
Johnson also vowed to block money linked to the Kremlin being laundered through London. He said: “If Russia invades its neighbour, we will sanction Russian individuals and companies of strategic importance to the Russian state, and we will make it impossible for them to raise finance on the London capital markets. We will open up the Matryoshka dolls of Russian-owned companies and Russian-owned entities to find the ultimate beneficiaries within.”
But Johnson later said there was still time to find a diplomatic solution. He said: “I think certainly things are in motion, but the question is whether it can all be pulled back, and whether the president of Russia is still able to call this operation off. I think that possibility must logically still exist, and therefore I think it’s absolutely vital that we have a path of dialogue, of reason.
“You know, you just cannot see how this makes sense for Russia.
“Imagine the invasion of Ukraine, a country of 45 million people, the second-biggest country in Europe geographically apart from Russia itself – an absolutely colossal place. You can’t hold it down. There will be a protracted, violent, bloody insurgency with the loss of life for young Russians, as well as for Ukrainians.”
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for sanctions to be imposed now, rather than waiting for Russian to invade. He said two Ukrainian soldiers were killed and three wounded yesterday.
The Munich gathering has been used in recent years by both US and Russian leaders to deliver pivotal messages. US vice-president Kamala Harris told the conference Russia would face “unprecedented” financial costs if it invades Ukraine.
She said the West had “strength through unity” and an invasion would likely lead to an even bigger Nato presence on Russia’s doorsteps.
Baltic countries have requested the US increase its troop presence, and Harris said: “We will further reinforce our Nato allies on the eastern flank.”
Harris spoke at the conference after Joe Biden warned on Friday night the US has reason to believe Russian forces intended to attack Ukraine in the coming days.
Biden told a White House press briefing he was convinced Putin had “made the decision” to move his military across the border, having spent weeks saying he thought the Russian leader was undecided.
Pro-Russian rebels began evacuating civilians from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to neighbouring Russia yesterday. Cars and buses queued for miles from Donetsk to the Russian border checkpoint.
Denis Pushilin, head of the pro-Russian separatist government in the Donetsk region, announced a full troop mobilisation and urged reservists to show up at military enlistment offices. He said: “I appeal to all the men in the republic who can hold weapons to defend their families, their children, wives, mothers. Together we will achieve the coveted victory that we all need.”
A similar announcement followed from Leonid Pasechnik, the separatist leader in the Luhansk region.
In recent weeks, Russia repeatedly denied planning to invade Ukraine, accusing the West of “hysteria” and insisting troops were conducting military exercises in the region.
Yesterday Putin was pictured overseeing nuclear missile drills from Moscow. Russia claimed the build-up of troops and logistical support were part of planned exercises.
Russian media claimed two exploded Ukrainian shells were found on Russian territory, reports denied by Ukraine. Russian authorities also said a shell hit a village house in the Rostov region.
Ukraine has said Russia is intending to carry out provocations to create an excuse for an invasion. It said yesterday afternoon Russian mercenaries and special services have entered Donetsk. “The purpose of these provocations will, of course, be to accuse Ukraine of further escalation,” said the Ukrainian military.
Meanwhile, Lithuanian officials have voiced concern Putin’s ambitions could expand to the entire region. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia joined Nato on the same day in March 2004.
Lithuanian Foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said: “The battle for Ukraine is a battle for Europe. If Putin is not stopped there, he will go further. We need to send a very clear message that it would be faced by a very clear and swift response.”
He met with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, who promised the Baltic nations they would not be on their own if threatened by Russia, but he stopped short of promising a permanent deployment of American troops. He said: “I want everyone in Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia to know – and I want President Putin and the Kremlin to know – that the United States of America stands with our allies.”
Austin also said of Russia’s position: “They are uncoiling and are now poised to strike.”
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