General Election 2015 12 seats that could hold the key to power

Pollsters are struggling to predict the outcome with many saying that there will be no national swing and instead this election will be decided by 650 separate polls taking place in every seat across the country.

We’ve picked out a dozen of those local contests that will prove vital to David Cameron and Ed Miliband’s chances of making it to Downing Street and will give an inkling of who they might need to talk to Lib Dems or SNP to get them there.

Carlisle

MP: John Stevenson

Party: Conservative

Majority: 853

Swing needed: 2% Cons-Lab

Runners: Tories nicked it in 2010 and it remains a two horse race

Did you know? Carlisle has been a constituency since the Model Parliament of 1295.

Scot John Stevenson has represented Carlisle effectively but unremarkably since the last election and he was as surprised as anyone when he broke Labour’s 40 year stranglehold on the seat in 2010. Labour have high hopes of recapturing the seat fielding Lee Sherriff, a local single mum, as their candidate who plays up her credentials as a normal person not a professional politician.

Berwick-Upon-Tweed

MP: Sir Alan Beith (standing down)

Party: Lib Dem

Majority: 2690

Swing needed: 3.5% Lib Dems-Cons

Runners: The coalition partners facing off it’s Lib Dems vs Tories

Did you know? Alan Beith had to win the seat three times in the space of 12 months sneaking a by-election win in 1973 by just 57 votes then defending it twice in the 1974 elections.

With no incumbent the Tory candidate Anne-Marie Trevelyan, who also contested the seat in 2010 and has been working the patch hard ever since,starts favourite to beat Lib Dem Julie Porksen. If she fails then it will not bode well for Tory chances on election night and the Lib Dems will be jubilant. But given it’s going to be a tight race in a rural seat don’t expect an early result.

Stockton South

MP: James Wharton

Party: Conservative

Majority: 332

Swing needed: 0.7% Cons-Lab

Runners: Conservatives vs Labour in one of the few North East swing seats

Did you know? Elected at 26 James Wharton is the Conservatives youngest MP.

Youthful Tory James Wharton found himself thrust into the spotlight when his name came out of the hat to take forward the Conservatives’ first attempt at bringing in a bill forcing an EU referendum. Stockton South has been a bellwether seat for some time and local lass Louise Baldock should be able to overturn Wharton’s wafer thin majority if Ed Miliband’s to have any chance of becoming PM.

Bradford West

MP: George Galloway

Party: Respect

Majority: 10,140

Swing needed: 30% Respect-Lab

Runners: Gorgeous George may have met his match in Labour’s Naz Shah

Did you know? Even if he loses it won’t be the end of George Galloway, he says he’ll run for London mayor next year.

Galloway pulled off a stunning and unexpected win in a 2012 by-election. The Scot struggles to shake off controversy and one of the most volatile battlegrounds has already turned sour with Labour’s Naz Shah threatening to sue Galloway after he challenged her claims to have been abused in a forced marriage as a teenager. Expect raucous scenes at the count no matter the result.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

MP: Danny Alexander

Party: Lib Dem

Majority: 8765

Swing needed: 18.6% Lib Dem-SNP

Runners: Lib Dems and SNP, Labour unlikely to win but could poll well

Did you know? After Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman dubbed Danny a “ginger rodent” a local brewery produced a beer of that name.

In the space of a month in 2010 Danny Alexander went from Lib Dem back room boy to Chief Secretary to the Treasury via a very short stint as Scottish Secretary. Now his political career looks set to come to an equally abrupt end at the hands of SNP candidate and Highland Council leader Drew Hendry. The Lib Dems are talking up their chances but realistically this looks nailed on to provide one of election night’s “Portillo moments”.

Edinburgh South

MP: Ian Murray

Party: Labour

Majority: 316

Swing needed: 27% Lab-SNP

Runners: The SNP are favourites everywhere at this election but Labour are in the running here.

Did you know? Former Edinburgh South MP Michael Ancram now sits in the House of Lords as the Marquess of Lothian

Scotland’s most marginal seat is sure to fall to the SNP surge, isn’t it? Labour are hopeful of holding this seat claiming that Murray’s built up a personal vote as the incumbent plus there’s a significant Tory vote in places like Morningside that might tactically switch to their man and let him overhaul the SNP’s slim poll lead. The nationalist cause wasn’t helped by their candidate Neil Hay getting outed as a cybernat last week.

Gordon

MP: Malcolm Bruce (standing down)

Party: Lib Dem

Majority: 6748

Swing needed: 13.8% Lib Dem-SNP

Runners: It’s a one horse race.

Did you know? Bizarrely the BNP polled nearly as many votes as the Scottish Greens in Gordon at the last election

The Lib Dems genuinely seem to think that Christine Jardine, a former Downing Street special adviser, can unite the unionist vote and hold Gordon. But any SNP candidate would fancy their chances here and former First Minister Alex Salmond looks unstoppable. Worth watching this one for what Salmond has to say in his inevitable victor’s speech about working with Labour in the event of a hung parliament.

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

MP: Douglas Alexander

Party: Labour

Majority: 16,614

Swing needed: 41% Lab-SNP

Runners: Labour and the SNP in a dogfight over this one

Did you know? Douglas Alexander was in charge of David Miliband’s unsuccessful campaign for the Labour leadership but is now close to Ed Miliband

Toppling shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander would be especially sweet for the SNP since he helped mastermind the Better Together campaign that won the independence referendum and he’s Labour’s election supremo this time out. It’d be embarrassing if he managed to get Ed Miliband elected but lost his own seat. Still, the SNP are fielding 20-year-old Mhairi Black against him and according to the polls she’s going to take him down.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

MP: Michael Moore

Party: Lib Dems

Majority: 5675

Swing needed: 11% Lib Dem-Cons

Runners: It’s a three way split between Lib Dems, Tories and the SNP

Did you know: It’s 50 years since David Steel won the seat at a by-election and it’s stayed Liberal ever since

Likable Michael Moore’s personal vote could see him home but if the SNP win here then it’ll be evidence of a political earthquake. On the other hand Tory John Lamont could nick it and either take over as the sole Scottish Conservative MP or double their numbers the latter would be concrete evidence of a revival in Scotland under Ruth Davidson and would really help David Cameron back into Downing Street.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

MP: David Mundell

Party: Conservatives

Majority: 4194

Swing needed: 27% Cons-SNP

Runners: Labour were previously the challengers now the SNP are eyeing the seat

Did you know? Tory minister David Mundell was once a member of the SDP

Mundell took over from Peter Duncan as Scotland’s only Tory MP in 2005. Now polls suggest he’ll lose and the title will switch to John Lamont in the neighbouring seat. But if the Tories are having a good night Mundell could hold on and the old joke that there’s more pandas in Scotland that Conservative MPs will finally be put to bed.

East Renfrewshire

MP: Jim Murphy

Party: Labour

Majority: 10, 420

Swing needed: 41% Lab-SNP

Runners: The Scottish Labour leader goes up against the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald

Did you know? This constituency was once the Conservatives safest seat in Scotland.

It’s a remarkable achievement by Jim Murphy to nick what was the Eastwood seat from the Tories in 1997 and turn it into a Scottish Labour fortress. But he’ll need all his campaigning nous and all of that big majority to see him home this time. The polls are relatively good but my how the nationalists would celebrate if they left the Scottish Labour leader seatless on May 8.

Airdrie and Shotts

MP: Pamela Nash

Majority: 12,408

Swing needed: 35% Lab-SNP

Runners: A classic safe Labour seat turned marginal by the SNP surge

Did you know? As the youngest MP Nash is dubbed the Baby of the House having been elected aged just 25

This is the sort of seat where they used to weigh the Labour vote rather than count it. But Nash was only narrowly re-selected by her local party this time out which doesn’t bode well. Her lack of campaigning experience could prove vital in the face of an SNP operation that is rich in human and financial resources. A win for the SNP’s Neil Gray will symbolise the nationalist takeover of previously Labour heartlands.