Fact check: Tory election broadcast round-up

The broadcast made claims about HS2, among other things (Andrew Matthews/PA)

The Conservative Party aired its first election broadcast on June 3, simultaneously publishing the video on its social media and online platforms.

The first claim in the video is that inflation has fallen from “over 11% to near 2.5%”, which is backed up by the Office for National Statistics – which recorded the Consumer Price Index at 11.1% in October 2022 and shows the most recent figure, for April 2024, as 2.3%. A selection of other, more complicated claims are examined below:

Mortgage rates

The voiceover of the video declares “mortgage rates are coming down” while the on-screen text reads “mortgage rates falling”.

According to data from Moneyfacts provided to the PA news agency, the average two-year fixed mortgage was 5.93% on June 1 2024, down from a recent peak of 6.85% on August 1, 2023.

The five-year rate also peaked last August at 6.37%, but has since fallen to 5.50% in June.

So mortgage rates are down from their recent peaks. However in recent months they have been going back up.

Both the average two-year and five-year rates have increased every month since February 1, when they were at 5.56% and 5.18% respectively.

Deportation flights

The opening flurry of claims continues with “flights scheduled”, expanded upon in voiceover as: “Flights to deport migrants are about to take off.”

The PA news agency has found no evidence that flights are scheduled to go to Rwanda, assuming that is what is meant in the advert.

When contacted by PA, the Home Office said it was unable to comment on whether any flights had been scheduled. The Conservative Party did not respond.

HS2 funds

“We scrapped the over-budget and constantly delayed HS2,” the video claims over footage of Rishi Sunak on a train. “And used every penny saved to fund local transport projects near you.”

Only a section of the HS2 scheme – the section of the high speed rail line which would have connected Manchester and Birmingham – was scrapped in October 2023.

The Government announced a total of £36 billion would be invested in transport projects across the country, with a further £12 billion going towards “faster connectivity between Liverpool and Manchester”.

Under the Network North scheme, £19.8 billion will be spent on projects in “the north of England”, with another £9.6 billion being spent on the Midlands and £6.5 billion on other parts of the country, including “rail improvements in the South West”.

Labour’s position on defence

In a section of the video about the Labour Party, a graphic indicates that both David Lammy and Angela Rayner “voted against our nuclear deterrent”, while adding that “Keir Starmer won’t back our increase in defence spending”.

On July 18 2016, the House of Commons voted on replacing four Trident nuclear missile submarines to maintain the UK’s continuous nuclear deterrent.

Both Mr Lammy and Ms Rayner did vote against the proposal, which was passed by a cross-party majority of 472 MPs.

Mr Lammy has since said that his commitment to the nuclear deterrent is “unshakeable” and, on June 3, he told a journalist that “what I’ve seen in Ukraine… [and] the systemic risk that Vladimir Putin poses” led to his change of heart on the matter.

On the same day, Ms Rayner posted on X that she “never supported unilateral disarmament” and said the deterrent was “more important than ever”.

Rishi Sunak has committed to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.

On June 3, the Labour Party matched this commitment, publishing on its website: “With Keir Starmer, Labour is committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence as soon as we can.”