‘Undecideds’ will hold the key to victory

With polls showing referendum is too close to call, it emerges hundreds of thousands are still to make up their minds

An estimated 500,000 Scots are set to leave it until the last minute to make their minds up about supporting or rejecting independence.

The Yes and No camps are mobilising tens of thousands of activists in the coming days to try to win over swithering voters as well as ensuring their own core vote gets out.

Both campaigns last night claimed they were in front with Yes saying over the last ten days its canvassed vote has been ahead of where it needs to be to win. However, Better Together leader Alistair Darling said he has “no doubt” there will be a No vote on Thursday.

The pro-Union camp’s confidence was bolstered last night by a new Survation opinion poll which showed 54% of Scots plan to vote No compared to 46% for Yes. But a rival poll showed the Yes camp was ahead by the same margin.

Yes Scotland chief Blair Jenkins said: “We believe on the basis of our information that we will achieve a Yes vote. Over the last ten days, the canvassed Yes vote has been consistently ahead of where we need to be to win.”

Mr Jenkins added the onslaught from big business casting doubts on independence in the last week has had little impact on Yes canvassing, which has seen them speak to 175,000 Scots in the last week alone.

The Yes Scotland chief also said that over the weekend there will be more than 35,000 volunteers at 473 registered street stalls trying to persuade people to vote for independence, as well as 2.6 million “Yes” leaflets delivered.

But former Chancellor Mr Darling claimed tens of thousands of canvass returns showed his side are ahead.

He said: “Our returns are good, our vote is holding up. Yes have been claiming they’ve been in the lead since the campaigns began two years ago when manifestly they weren’t. I’ve seen our returns, they are good, I’m confident we will win.”

And he revealed that Better Together will focus on five key questions in the last five days of campaigning in an attempt to win over the estimated 500,000 voters yet to make up their mind.

The Survation poll of 1,000 Scots commissioned by Better Together shows support for Yes at 40.8%, No on 48% and the rest undecided. Excluding the don’t knows that comes to 54% in favour of No and 46% in favour of Yes with just four days to go. The poll also found 40% of voters believe they and their families would be financially worse off under independence compared to 27% who believe they would be better off.

First Minister Alex Salmond, campaigning in the East End of Glasgow, played down the poll.

He said: “What matters is what’s happening in the streets and communities around Scotland. The Yes side has the momentum and that’s going to carry us through next Thursday and that’s because we’ve got a positive message, we want to build a more prosperous economy and a fairer society, and there’s no scare story that the No campaign can mobilise which competes with that positive vision for the future.”

But Blair McDougall, campaign director of Better Together, welcomed the latest findings.

He said: “This poll suggests that No are in the lead but that the race is far from over. No-one can afford a protest vote. Any one could cast the vote that makes the difference between the UK staying together or breaking apart.”