The FA have a grand plan. They would like Gareth Southgate to succeed Roy Hodgson as England manager.
There’s no rush for it to happen. Ideally it would be at least three years down the line because the hope is that Hodgson will do well enough at next summer’s European Championships to justify a two-year extension to his contract.
That would take him to the World Cup in Russia, when he’ll be approaching his 71st birthday and probably ready to call it a day after that tournament.
By then Southgate would be almost 48 and ready to step up from his job as Under-21 manager.
There’s clearly logic to this progression. Southgate worked for the FA as Head of Elite Development before taking up his role with the Under-21s two years ago.
He is steeped in everything the FA are trying to do at St George’s Park under Technical Director, Dan Ashworth, works hand in glove with Hodgson and has an easy manner that makes him equally comfortable in a room full of “blazers” as he is in front of TV cameras.
But the trouble with grand plans is that things can happen on the pitch to derail them.
And by this evening, in the Czech town of Olomouc, Southgate’s succession may not look so straightforward.
His team faces Sweden. If they lose, they will be out of the UEFA Under-21 tournament after just 180 minutes of football.
Sound familiar? Rewind 12 months to Hodgson’s team in Brazil.
Southgate reached the finals by winning nine out of 10 qualifiers and drawing the other. England were 12 points clear at the head of their group with a goal difference of 31-2.
They went on to win both legs of their play-off. They’ve also won five of their six friendlies. Again, all very much like the seniors.
But we’ve learned from bitter experience that results in qualifiers and friendlies count for nothing when the finals come round.
Rule No.1 of tournament football is not to lose your opening game. Southgate lost his against Portugal on Thursday, meaning there’s no longer any margin for error.
The FA are desperate for him to show he has a grasp of the skills required to successfully manage his way through a tournament. It would tick a very significant box.
He doesn’t necessarily have to win the Euro Under-21s. But early elimination would be a huge blow to their masterplan.
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